They believed in a recession Economists lower forecasts for U.S. economic

The weakening of U.S. macroeconomic indicators in the second quarter has given rise to serious concerns the possibility of recurrence of recession. The average probability of re-recession of more than 20%, calculated Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Economists continue to cut growth forecasts for GDP, and wait for improvements should be no earlier than mid-2011.

According to a survey WSJ among the 53 economists, the probability of the second decline in the average is 22%. According to the respondents publishing experts, a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the second quarter (up 1.6%) increases the risk of double recession. "I appreciate the likelihood of re-recession to 25%. The remaining respondents had a similar opinion, "- said RBC senior economist at Nomura daily by U.S. Wrestle David, who participated in the study. Formerly a professor at New York University Nouriel Roubini assess the likelihood of re-recession in the U.S. 40%.

According to the median estimate of survey participants, the U.S. GDP in the third quarter of this year will grow by 1,9%, while in the fourth quarter - by 2,4% in annual terms. The previous forecast was more optimistic: three months ago, experts expected that in both quarters, the U.S. economy will grow by 3%.

Bank UniCredit Group also reduced the growth forecast of U.S. GDP in the second half with 2,25 to 1,75%. This annual rise in the U.S. economy will be only 2.6%. UniCredit economists justify the reduction in U.S. economic growth so that the effect of stimulating economic activity and the stock dropped significantly in April-June, and in the second half of the year in general can be negative.

However, a recession waiting, not all analysts. "Re-recession - not our base scenario, - said RBC economist at BNP Paribas daily on U.S. Elena Shulyateva. - We believe that the economy will grow long rates below average. We expect growth in 1.5% in the third and fourth quarters. " In 2011, as predicted by BNP Paribas, U.S. GDP will grow by 1,7% (with potential for growth in the 2,25%).

Economists Blue Chip Economic Indicators (52 leading experts from American companies, banks and universities) last week for the third consecutive time lowered the forecast for U.S. GDP growth. They believe that in the second half of the year this figure will be lower than 1,6%, which the United States demonstrated in the second quarter.

One reason for the slow recovery of the U.S. economy is the high level of unemployment in the country. Respondents expect WSJ, however, that the U.S. unemployment rate drops slightly in December to 8,9 from 9,6% in August.

UniCredit Group experts also believe that job growth will occur very slowly. According to their forecast, in late 2011, the unemployment rate was 8,75-9%. According to the forecast of Ms. Shulyatevoy, to the end of 2010 the unemployment rate will rise to 9.8%, and by the end of 2011 will drop to 9,4%.

It is believed the majority of experts interviewed by the WSJ, in such circumstances, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not be solved within the next 12 months to raise the primary discount rate from near-zero values. More than a quarter of respondents even believe that the rate increase may not happen before 2012. The Fed, however, will resume buying long-term commitment, I'm sure 31 out of 51 respondents.

"The actions the Fed might be effective, but may not be. But this does not mean that the Fed does not try to influence the situation. The Fed will begin to operate until the end of the year, most likely, resuming buying state bonds ", - said Mr. Wrestle. According to Ms. Shulyatevoy, Fed with 50-percent probability the next week may announce additional measures are likely related to the government bond market. "The Fed is ready to act, but need a reason. In the meantime, we will not grow fast, but still grow ", - noted the analyst.

Experts virtually unanimous that the next two to three quarters of the U.S. economy expect a serious test. At the same time since the second half of 2011 it will accelerate growth. "The results of the November congressional elections will have a positive impact on the economy: even initiated by President George Bush tax breaks, which should expire this year will be extended, as the congressional elections the Republicans will win", - said David Wrestle.