What awaits us at the end of 2010 - a reduced interest rate? Unprecedentedly low level of interest on loans? Is it possible to construct predictions on this subject? I propose to analyze the facts together.
Led by refinancing rate
As we know, government regulation plays a significant role in the economy. In the banking segment, one of the instruments of regulation - the refinancing rate established by the Bank of Russia. It has a significant impact on both the interest on loans provided by banks, so in the end, and the valuation of resources, that is, interest on bank deposits.
In 2009, the refinancing rate was reduced 10-fold - from 13 to 8,75%. (See chart). In 2010, the Bank of Russia has four times the reduced rate. Current level from 1 July - 7,75%. And this is a record low - the lowest for the recent history of Russia.
Such a low refinancing rate set by the regulator aims to encourage credit activity of banks, on the one hand, and on the other - to bolster the banks, so they reduced the deposit rates by adjusting the margins. But in addition, the rate reflects the current level of inflation and affect in the "feedback" to curb inflation. Then they get a kind of lever.
Particularly responsive to customer rate of the corporate segment. However, given that the banking sector "flooded" with liquidity, banks are stimulating demand for consumer loans, actively lowering interest rates and retail segments. And here triggered a domino effect: one affects the other.
Reacting to all the efforts of the Central Bank, banks in the autumn of 2009 all started the same caution to lend. In February-March 2010, there were even ads banking loans (Note that prior to this, banks advertised only contributions). And so April and May showed a slight, but still the growth of credit portfolios.
Many analysts - and I agree with them - note that by August-September this year might be called the growth of bank loan portfolios stable.
Recovery of loan - this is not a credit boom
Many banks in their press release indicating the intention to return to the pre-crisis level of funding in the first segment of the retail sector and small and medium businesses. And to pre-crisis conditions, and hence with pre-crisis interest rate. We have them, reducing the already arrived.
And then there is a turning point: the refinancing rate is significantly below pre-crisis levels, and crediting the real sector banks only came up to the level of pre-crisis rate (I do not mean volume, and cost of credit). And here is unfolding competition for high quality customer with a low risk.
On the financial market, experts note, finally has a "thaw". Banks in the current year going back to pre-crisis, all the familiar and understandable terms of lending - at low rates with a minimum package of documents for different amounts and timing. If 2009 has remained in history as the year of the depositor ", then all points to the fact that 2010 will be the" Year of the borrower.
And here a question - whether the next step? And what tool will select the regulator to further stimulate lending to the real sector of the economy at low rates to move to another league, where the interest on loans at 8-9% per annum?
Another, or Major League
Playing in the major league requires virtuosity and teamwork of the whole team - this is football. The same is true in economics: the interaction of instruments - is a single mechanism and organism. And the factor of coherence comes to the fore.
stavka_2009.gifProtsentnaya policies of commercial banks largely focused on the refinancing of the Central Bank. Do the changes in the refinancing rate on the financial situation of the population? Of course, yes!
When falling interest rates on loans, the borrowers benefit. Who loses in this game? This is - investors, they are deprived of revenue from their investments, because banks and lower rates on deposits at the same time to reduce the cost of its resource base.
Then, the refinancing rate reaches the level of inflation, which means that interest on deposits will be below the level of inflation, that is, will be depreciation of deposits. Inflation will eat up income on deposits.
And here the problem of control is a compromise between all these elements, while maintaining the balance between them.
As a result of 2009, inflation in Russia amounted to 8,8%, and the refinancing rate securities at the end of the year - 8.75%. It was the lowest since 1991, that is, recent history of Russia. According to the results of 2010, may be new records.
Borrowers and depositors: Draw 1:1
The interest of banks to grant loans began to rise, and interest in the issue of deposits - to decline. In the banking interest in the deposits and loans reached a balance. I think that this word can be characterized by the second half of 2010. There were no serious falls in the policy of banks will not. And the balance is to be achieved by additional efforts of banks in achieving the pre-crisis loan portfolio across all segments (corporate lending, retail, SME).
This same balance is indirect evidence that the overall level of rates is also close to the equilibrium point, which in this case, means braking and even termination of a trend to a drop in rates. So even with the rates situation has reached equilibrium, further reduction is unlikely to expect.
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