The time ahead?

Association of Regional Banks of Russia and the magazine paper machine. Banks and the business world, "conducted a joint survey of" Time, forward? ".

Purpose - to understand what exactly the Russian bankers see potential "growth point" and "engine for development" (were the favorite expression in the 90 years when the crisis was the norm of life).

However, the evaluation of our respondents were not a surprise.

Almost 39% of respondents believe that "growth points" to be found in the classic banking. Still about 30% see them in the stock market and its players (mutual funds, management companies), or in investment banking. Only 15% believe promising "growth points" pension funds, 13% being groomed for the role of insurance companies.

As the most promising areas of financial business in the near future, it has become the clear leader in consumer lending (it was noted at this as more than 34% of respondents). In second place - auto loans (28%), the third - mortgage (26%). In other words, retail lending in all these strands is still seen as the main drive home bankingayu

Only a quarter of respondents (24,7%) believe a promising direction of corporate lending. Even fewer respondents believe in the direct investment banks (22%) and portfolio investment (17%).

Such direction as credit cards are considered promising, only 15,7% of respondents. And only 13.5% believe in interbank lending as a source of banking drive.

Quite a decent position in the list of promising areas occupied deposits (almost 15%), the market of remittances (nearly 12%), investment products (almost 12%) and operations in foreign currency (almost 15%).

In the "outsiders" - those areas of financial services business as a trading, CSC, insurance. And more than 9% of respondents believe that as soon as the success of any financial products in general is hardly possible.

A separate poll question - "weak link" of the Russian banking. Most call this an organization of credit (38,2%), risk management (33,7%), investment products (32,6%) and assessment of borrowers (25.2%). More than a quarter of respondents (25,8%) consider a weakness IT-security domestic banking. Almost as many (24.3%) see the problem with the management of liens. In 11-14% of the respondents as "weak links" are considering cash management services, marketing, advertising and promotion of products, organization of office and ATM networks and services of banking cards. Almost no one sees the problems with the operations of the foreign exchange market, the organization of subordinated loans and the work of accounting and treasury.

Many respondents also noted that the catalyst for the development of the banking market in the new business season may be, above all, professionalism and team involvement more effective executives (36%), optimization and management costs (32,5%). However, internal issues and banking reserves are not considered as the main condition for development of the industry. Almost half of respondents (46%) believe that the development of banking depends on the overall economic recovery in the country, and more than 20% believe that there is support in principle for the state.

17,6% at this point that the need for liberalization of banking regulations. 16,8% believe that boring a more effective regulatory policy and oversight. Only a few as a catalyst for development see Western investments (17,6%), development of interbank lending (12,4%) and the change in the ownership of banks (10,9%).

The results of the survey commented:

kovalenko_L75x98.gifLyudmila Kovalenko, the chief editor of the paper machine. Banks and the business world ":
Strictly speaking, this poll could be prefaced a common header: what will make money, guys? The question, I must say, is not idle, because the conditions that suggested the crisis, we must not simply adapt and find some kind of their "chip". The trouble was that from past experience to take almost nothing: after the default of 1998, inflation has erased any mistakes, but how to live with inflation at 5-7%, we just do not know. One thing is clear: the five-percent margin will have to forget, in the currency speculation had not paid, the amount issued by "plastic" almost exceeded the number of the Russian population, including infants ...

And yet in the banking segment more certainty than in other parts of the financial market - not by chance that nearly 39% of the respondents as a major "growth point" the current fall highlighted the classic banking. Was expected and a trio of leaders in response to a question about the most promising areas of banking activity. And what, in fact, go far: potrebkreditovanie, auto loans and mortgages, which has been undertaken to promote the state ...

So, that's so, but I have a deep suspicion that the prospects of our respondents judged on the criteria of the pre-crisis, when the houses were selling at the pit, and car dealers have not offered interest-free installments from the manufacturer. Regarding mortgages, it is now clear that this is - a toy for big ", and is likely to state banks. Those smaller, until there is nothing to catch.

It seems that in the consumer credit will not be those increments, which we are so proud of before the crisis, but cautious 24.72%, which came on the segment of corporate loans, well illustrate the attitude of bankers: "Yes, of course, credit should be - but who?

And the most characteristic seemed to me the answers to the question of "catalyst". Here, however, also there were no surprises. Almost half of respondents confident that everything will solve "the general economic upturn in the country" - is hard to argue ... the top five were also "bad debts" with whom we deal, cost optimization and promotion of new products. But the fact that nearly 36% of respondents believe the main task of increasing professionalism and the involvement of effective managers, suggesting a sober assessment of the current staffing situation in the banks. But if this is worth more and the realization that the quality of banking services must be raised in principle, it is possible to look into the future with some optimism.

livshic75x98.jpgYakov Livshits, head of the holding 123Service.ru:
Perhaps the fact that most respondents see the point of growth in retail lending, does not possess originality. But it shows at least two important facts.

First - rooted in the Russian market a healthy attitude towards banking, understanding that in any situation, the primary mission of banking - still lend, rather than engage in speculation, the stock market game or money orders.

The second - a crisis brought home the errors, review approaches, but not frightened Russian bankers and not kill their faith in the development of credit markets.

And in this sense I view the survey results as positive. "The patient is rather alive than dead" - that is certain.

ivanov75x98.jpgOleg Ivanov, vice president of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia:
It is curious that the "growth point" and "promising direction", most respondents attributed primarily to the active operations of banks. Within asset dominates lending. However, as I thought, assessing the prospects potrebkreditovaniya, car loans and mortgages arranged simply in order that the interest margin, which bankers can get on these varieties of loans. I think that's why consumer loans ahead of all other areas ...

I think the bankers underestimate syndrome savings, which now is in Russian society. And in view of this syndrome could see more prospects in the passive banking operations, in particular - in deposits.

With respect to mortgages and car loans ... I think that in 2010 and 2011 mortgages as driver development is interesting, and then will end the situation with state support, with the 250 billion rubles, which work in a three-year term. And further development of catalysts for the mortgage market entirely unclear. Auto loans - this is very good, but Tutu is a contradiction. Respondents nothing good about the state not wait, not really rely on an effective policy management and supervision, the liberalization of banking regulation, state support. And here's a simple example: if the state did not introduce long-awaited accounting of mortgage vehicles, something about the kind of development can we talk about car loans?

Curious assessment of "weak points" banking. I think they probably answer the question that was "weak spot" yesterday. Because credit scoring, underwriting, risk management was "weak points" to the crisis. The crisis has significantly raised the quality of risk management, taught the correct bank underwriting. So here in the estimates of the respondents worked more certain inertia of thinking.

Unpleasant moment - unwillingness to some distinctly dialogue with the authorities. According to the survey, we did not expect from the state, although we have every reason to present the state some "account" for the banking business and to achieve solutions to many longstanding questions. I think that all we need to influence the banking policy of the state. And hope to find in it one of the drivers of the banking industry.
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